By Adesanya Adejokun
The 2027 governorship election in Oyo State is shaping up as a contest between parties facing internal contradictions. The PDP has the advantage of incumbency and Governor Seyi Makinde’s political structure, but its succession crisis could prove more damaging than the APC’s internal disagreements.
The APC’s emergence of Senator Sharafadeen Alli as its candidate gives the party a focal point. Its challenge is reconciliation: bringing defeated aspirants, supporters and grassroots structures into one campaign. The PDP must convince voters that Makinde’s influence can be transferred to former Deputy Governor Hazeem Gbolarumi, despite their strained political relationship.
The PDM and Accord Party could further complicate the race by attracting dissatisfied politicians and protest voters. Makinde’s effort to maintain links with both the PDP and PDM may also influence the positioning of his allies.
The APC’s crisis is manageable
The APC’s primary was competitive, with Alli defeating Adebayo Adelabu, Abdulfatai Buhari, Rauf Olaniyan and Akeem Agbaje. However, a primary dispute does not necessarily become a permanent rupture.
Adelabu’s decision to accept the result and call for reconciliation is significant. The APC’s main problem can be negotiated: it must persuade defeated aspirants that the larger goal is recovering Agodi from the PDP.
Reconciliation must come with responsibility. Former aspirants should be given meaningful roles in the campaign and grassroots mobilisation.
The PDP’s problem is succession
Governor Makinde cannot seek a third consecutive term, creating a struggle over who inherits his political structure.
Gbolarumi’s victory in the PDP primary was overwhelming, but it exposed divisions between his camp and Makinde-aligned elements. His past break with Makinde and association with Nyesom Wike’s camp make the situation more difficult.
The key question is whether Makinde’s political machine will work wholeheartedly for a candidate who defeated the arrangement associated with it. That is a harder problem than the APC’s internal disagreement.
Makinde’s influence is not automatically transferable
The PDP cannot assume that Makinde’s popularity will automatically transfer to Gbolarumi. Political networks are often built around individuals rather than parties.
The APC should focus less on attacking Makinde and more on highlighting the uncertainty surrounding succession. Its message should be clear: after eight years in power, the PDP is entering the post-Makinde era divided over who controls its future.
APC’s opportunity in Ibadan
The APC’s route to victory begins in Ibadan, especially in Ibadan North, Ibadan North-West and Ibadan South-West. It need not dominate every area, but it must improve significantly on previous performances.
The party should coordinate former aspirants, legislators, local government leaders, ward leaders and grassroots organisers. Every reconciled politician becomes an asset; every one given a meaningful role becomes another organiser for Alli.
Oke-Ogun, Oyo and Ogbomoso
The APC must also consolidate its traditional strongholds in Oke-Ogun, Oyo and Ogbomoso. Areas such as Saki West, Saki East, Atisbo, Iseyin, Oyo East, Ogbomoso North and Ogbomoso South require locally driven campaigns.
The party should empower respected local leaders rather than impose a centralised structure. This will be crucial if the PDP struggles to maintain a statewide coalition after Makinde’s departure.
The APC must not underestimate the PDP
The PDP remains formidable. Incumbency, government visibility, resources and Makinde’s record give it major advantages.
The APC must not assume that PDP divisions will automatically deliver victory. It must earn that advantage through reconciliation, disciplined messaging, respect for local structures and a clear campaign strategy.
Most importantly, Alli must become more than the winner of the primary; he must become the candidate around whom the entire party rallies.
The PDM, Accord and the fragmentation question
The PDM and Accord may not win the governorship, but they could affect the result by attracting dissatisfied voters and politicians. Their impact will depend on their candidates, local structures, alliances and ability to convert protest sentiment into organised support.
Makinde’s links to both the PDP and PDM could give the movement added relevance, while Accord may appeal to voters seeking an alternative to the two major parties.
For the APC, these parties pose both a danger and an opportunity. They could draw away potential APC supporters, but they could also divide opposition to the APC or expose weaknesses in the PDP coalition. The APC should monitor them closely and remain open to strategic alliances.
The SDP and the spoiler effect
The SDP could also influence the race. A third force does not need to win to change the outcome; it only needs to split votes in a closely contested election.
If it attracts voters dissatisfied with the PDP’s succession arrangement, the APC could benefit. Still, the APC must aim to win on its own strength.
From crisis to coalition
The APC’s challenge is to turn its primary crisis into a coalition for victory. The PDP must turn Makinde’s influence into a united succession movement, while the PDM and Accord could benefit from dissatisfaction with both major parties.
If the APC reconciles Adelabu, Buhari, Olaniyan, Agbaje and their supporters, it will enter the election with a strong coalition. If the PDP remains divided over the relationship between Gbolarumi and the Makinde-aligned establishment, the political equation could change dramatically.
The election will not only be a referendum on Makinde’s eight-year record. It will also test which party can manage succession and coalition-building.
The APC must unite its leaders, strengthen its grassroots structures and offer a credible programme focused on jobs, security, education, healthcare, roads, agriculture and urban renewal. It should also integrate former aspirants, young people and women into meaningful campaign and policy roles.
If it succeeds, its internal competition could become its greatest strength.
If the APC unites while the PDP remains divided over succession, and smaller parties reshape protest votes, 2027 could be the election in which the APC turns adversity into victory.